Flooding in St. Paul this Spring?

The chart above is from the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service with the National Weather Service. This chart is the most recent predictions for spring river levels in downtown St. Paul. This prediction was released on the 16th. The vertical values are the height of the river in feet. The horizontal values are the percentage chance of that height being attained.

The black line is the current predictions for river height based on observed conditions such as current river flow and snow pack. the blue data are the observed averages from the historical data. The first thing you notice is that no matter where you look on the chart, the observed values are higher than average.

We can see that historically there is about a 25% chance of the river reaching the yellow line which indicates a flood level of 14 feet. Based on observed conditions, there is currently a 90% chance of the Mississippi river reaching flood level at downtown St. Paul. 14 feet is considered "minor flooding" and according to the NWS, at 14 feet, "Portions of the Lilydale residential area begin to experience flooding."

Harriet Island becomes submerged under water at 17.5 feet. This is considered major flooding. It looks like there is about a 65% chance of that happening based on current conditions.

Warner road becomes impassable due to high water and the downtown airport closes at around 18 to 18.5 feet. Historically there is about an 8% chance of this happening in a given year. Current predictions for this spring are around 55%.

Of course, what will actually happen will depend a lot of what this next month brings in terms of precipitation. More snow will increase the chance of flooding as will March rains. A fast warm-up quickly melting snow and sending it to the river would increase flooding as well. It should be an interesting spring.

~Kirk

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Thank you Horned Larks

This morning on the way in to work I spotted some birds on the side of the road. The road goes through a farm field and each year I find this same little stretch is reliable for American Kestrels in the summer and if I am lucky, Horned Larks in the winter. I love this little stretch of road. I saw a Northern Shrike there earlier this year and a Bobolink last summer.

I've been slowing down through this stretch each day patiently waiting for the Horned Larks. This morning, I saw some birds on the side fo the road. They were too large to be the tree sparrows and juncos I'd seen earlier in the season. I quickly pulled over and fumbled to get my binoculars out of my bag while I hoped no cars would come and scare off the birds. Predictably, the zipper on my bag jammed. I finally pulled out the binoculars and was delighted with a splendid view of Horned Larks. There were six of them in total.

It was a great feeling to see a new bird for the year. I'd been in a dry spell lately as I hadn't seen a new bird for the year since January 15th. That's more than a month without adding a bird to my list. Granted, I could have added some if I was trying harder or say, retired and not raising a toddler.

Here's the list thus far.

January 1
I started the year off on January 1st with my best first day of the year ever as we took a fmily trip down to La Crosse on the first of the year to visit family. A quick but unbelievably cold stop at Point Douglas helped. The Harlequin Duck was a lifer for me. Not bad way to start off the year.
1. House Sparrow (at my house)
2. Rock Pigeon (at my house)
3. Red-tailed Hawk (driving past the MSP airport)
4. Trumpeter Swan (point douglas)
5. Canada Goose (point douglas)
6. Mallard Duck (point douglas)
7. Harlequin Duck (point douglas)
8. American Coot (point douglas)
9. Ring-billed Gull (point douglas)
10. Ring-necked Duck (point douglas)
11. American Crow (point douglas)
12. Bald Eagle (near Wabasha)

January 2
On the Second day of the year I woke up to take in some of the birds at my in-laws house. To my toddler's disappointment, there was no chickadee at the feeders but the Tufted Titmouse did finally show up.
13. Slate-colored Dark-eyed Junco (LaCrosse, WI)
14. White-breasted Nuthatch (LaCrosse, WI)
15. Red-bellied Woodpecker (LaCrosse, WI)
16. Tufted Titmouse (LaCrosse, WI)
17. European Starling (LaCrosse, WI)

January 4
Back at work, I quickly picked up the usual suspects at the feeders.
18. Blue Jay (Warner Nature Center)
19. Hairy Woodpecker (Warner Nature Center)
20. Downy Woodpecker (Warner Nature Center)
21. Black-capped Chickadee (Warner Nature Center)
22. American Goldfinch (Warner Nature Center)
23. Sharp-shinned hawk (Warner Nature Center)
24. Pileated Woodpecker(Warner Nature Center)

January 6
One more day, one more bird.
25. American Robin (near Warner Nature Center)

January 7
An unexpected surprise, while sitting in a meeting at the Science Museum, a Peregrine Falcon repeatedly flew past the windows of the conference room.
26. Peregrine Falcon (Science Museum of MN, St. Paul)

January 11
On a school outreach trip I picked up two more birds. Marine on St. Croix is a good place for birding in the winter with open water from the Mill Stream and numerous springs.
27. Northern Cardinal (Marine on St. Croix)
28. American Tree Sparrow (Marine on St. Croix)

January 12
On the morning drive in to work I saw two more birds and then the Turkeys were finally at the feeders. The Northern Shrike was a real winter treat.
29. Ring-necked Pheasant (near Warner Nature Center)
30. Northern Shrike (near Warner Nature Center)
31. Wild Turkey (Warner Nature Center)

January 15
The house finches finally appeared at my fly through feeder at home.
32. House Finch (at my house)

February 23
After over a month of new birds...
33. Horned Lark (near Warner Nature Center)

The list has some surprises thus far. It was nice to get the Horned Lark, Sharp-shinned Hawk and Harlequin Duck. There are some really obvious omissions though. I have yet to see a Cedar Waxwing, Brown Creeper, Mourning Dove, Pine Siskin, Common Redpoll, or a Barred Owl. I think I am the only staff person at work who has not spotted a Barred Owl in the woods this year. Maybe this is my week.

~Kirk

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St. Paul to Ash Borer: Let the Battle Begin

(photo credit: US Forest Service)

It seems like a lot of the efforts thus far in the new battle against the invasive emerald ash borer have been reactive on the part of St. Paul, Minnesota. This is completely understandable with a new invasion like this. At the end of January though, the city opened a new front in the battle and it may not be where you would expect. The heart of the Emerald Ash Borer infestation has been centered on the very westernmost part of St. Paul near the Minnesota St. Fair grounds and the University of Minnesota St. Paul campus. The announcement at the end of last month was that the city would begin cutting down trees on the far East side of the city. They will remove XXX trees in wards 5, 6 and 7. The city has almost 30,000 ash trees on boulevards alone and it is estimated that ash trees make up 30% of the tree canopy in the city. According to the city's management plan, there are around 120,000 ash trees on public lands in the city. Make no mistake. The Emerald Ash Borer being found in St. Paul is a very bad thing. The city is now trying to be proactive in containing the threat.

The current plan is to remove the oldest and unhealthiest trees in the city that would be most likely to succumb to the eventual spread of the pest. These trees will die anyhow in the next few years as the ash borer spreads so by taking them out now the city not only gets a head start on their work but they hopefully will slow the spread of the borer by taking away trees that would be of use to the pest.

The reason for cutting down old trees proactively on the opposite side of the city from where the current infestation is located is that cutting down ash trees in the infected area would simply cause the bugs to spread further faster in search of suitable trees.

Trees have already been removed in the following areas:
Wilson Avenue between White Bear Avenue and Kennard Street
Reaney Avenue between Flandrau and Germain Streets
Hoyt Avenue between White Bear Avenue and Flandrau Street
Iowa Avenue between Kennard and Hazelwood Steets
Idaho Avenue between Flandrau and Germain Streets

Trees will shortly be removed on the following streets:
Walsh Street between Maryland and Magnolia Avenues
Magnolia Avenue between Payne Avenue and Walsh Street
Lawson Avenue between Weide and Arcade Streets
3rd Street between Germain and Flandrau Streets
Atlantic Street between Gotzian and 4th Streets
3rd Street between Earl and Atlantic Streets

The city is only removing boulevard trees and not trees on private property. Time will tell how the city's strategy pans out. You can download and read the city's entire management plan online. Eagan, Blaine, Minneapolis, St. Louis Park, New Hope, Minnetonka , and Cottage Grove have all also received money to help fight the spread of the beetle.

~Kirk

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Golden Eagle Flying with Goat

The hot buzz on the Internet right now is a series of photos taken by Eric Walters at the Nachusa Grasslands in Illinois.

The photos show a Golden Eagle attacking a white-tailed deer. They are quite impressive and it seems crazy that an eagle would try to take down a deer. Does the deer need to worry? Maybe.

The first thing that came to mind though when I saw the photos was this video from a few years back. A Golden Eagle picks a mountain goat off the side of a mountain and eats it. By all means watch the entire thing but the most amazing part starts at about 4:55. The eagle actually flies while carrying a goat. Amazing. The video is from Europe.



~Kirk

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Lichens can live in space!

(photo credit: Tigerente)

That's the news from the ESA (European Space Agency). The lichen species Xanthoria elegans successfully survived for 18 months on the exterior of the International Space Station in an experiment where it was exposed to the vacuum of space as well as wild temperature fluctuations and bombardment by cosmic rays and high levels of UV radiation from the sun. It is pretty incredible that something could survive all that. Space is one of the most hostile environments to life you can imagine. Humans would die extremely quickly in exposed space.

Let's be clear though, the lichen wasn't really growing, it was just surviving. Lichens have the ability to wait it out of conditions aren't just perfect for growth. Show me lichens growing in space and then I'll be completely blown away. Maybe I'm reading the reports wrong but it seems like the lichens just shut down and waited for conditions to improve.

Xanthoria elegans is a foliose lichen that grown on rocks. It is clearly very adaptable as even here on earth it is found in habitats as diverse as grasslands, sea shores and boreal forests.

I'd be very interested to see an experiment where lichens are sent to mars to see if they will grow in the thin martian atmosphere.

~Kirk

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Happy Darwin Day!

Today would have been Charles Darwin's 201st birthday. He was one of the greatest naturalists ever though he wasn't perfect. He had his share of troubles and even his understanding of evolution was limited by the technology and evidence available to him at the time. For example, he didn't understand how inheritance worked. Though Gregor Mendel had already figured out inheritance at the time, Mendelian Inheritance wasn't widely known until much later when scientists re-discovered his work around 1900. Still, it is great to pause and honor such a scientist and naturalist that helped us all understand our world a little better. I know personally his work has enriched my life.

This is a great opportunity to recommend a book. If you are interested in the life of Darwin I would recommend, The Reluctant Mr. Darwin: An Intimate Portrait of Charles Darwin and the Making of His Theory of Evolution. by David Quammen.

~Kirk

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Tit Watchers Needed.

Time to get off your wintered butt and start looking for tits in your backyard. Tits, those birds that are part of the Paridae family, mostly consist of Black-capped Chickadees and maybe Tufted Titmice if you're birding in the Twin Cities. This weekend (February 12-15) is the Great Backyard Bird Count and to be fair, they are looking for more than just tits. This is the wonderfully lucky 13th annual GBBC so you are practically mandated to participate. Only on the Christmas Bird Count will you find yourself so excited by chickadees, crows, pigeons and yes, even house sparrows.

Participants, also known by the sexy title, "Citizen Scientists", from around the country will fill out checklists of what they see allowing for a fantastic one weekend snapshot of the birds in North America. The project is organized by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology , the National Audubon Society, and Bird Studies Canada.

All you have to do is bird on this weekend and submit you observations on www.birdcount.org. It is called the Great Backyard Bird Count but you can bird elsewhere as well.

Last year scientists were able to discover interesting trends in the pine siskin population because of this event. They are counting on you!

Another cool thing is that on the www.birdcount.org website, you can check out real-time maps showing what others are reporting during the count. how cool is that? There is also a photo contest and you can upload photos of birds you see during the count. The chickadee at the top of this post was from one of last year's winners, Bill Schiess from Indiana. Just for participating you are entered in a drawing for prizes including bird feeders, binoculars, books, CDs, and many other great birding products.

Do you really need an excuse to go look at birds? Well now you have one! Even if you only enter data on a couple of birds you see in your yard that is still valuable data. Please take part!

(photo credit: Bill Schiess, taken during the 2009 Great Backyard Bird Count)

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Northwoods Phenologists Conference

I ran into Larry Weber at the Minnesota Ornithologial Union paper session this fall and he told me about a wonderful new project he is involved with. Larry is a phenologist who was a school teacher for years and ran his classes based on phenology. He's now involved in planning the 1st Annual Conference of the Northwoods Phenologists of MN & WI

If you are interested in phenology be sure to check it out.

Date: February 26-28, 2010

Location: Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center, Finland, MN

Cost: $120 includes five meals and occupancy in rooms of six

For more information contact:
Peter Harris or Betsey Mead (Wolf Ridge)
218-353-7414, scienceprojects@wolf-ridge.org

John Latimer (Grand Rapids)
218-326-8433, jlatimer@kaxe.org

Larry Weber (Duluth)
218-384-3851, frlaweber@q.com

Topics include:

• Head of the Lakes Climate Changes


• Weather Recording


• General Phenology Record Keeping


• Phenology as Seen in Birds


• Phenology as Seen in Dragonflies


• How to Use Phenology in Teaching


• Photography as a Means of Recording Phenology

Round table discussions will look at:

• Forming Phenology Organizations and Networks


• Phenology Research and Nomenclature

Outside walks will examine:

• Phenology of Late Winter


• Lichens and Winter Plants


• Using a Weather Station to Forecast and Record Climate Changes

Night hikes and telescopes are also available.

Wolf Ridge will also allow participants to take part in other classes and activities happening during this weekend. These include: birds, outdoor survival, sled dog demonstration, cross-country skiing and snowshoeing.

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Birds and Airplanes Survey

Having a lazy Saturday? I'm spending day two in bed with a fever. Good times indeed. The raging heat pouring out of this laptop probably doesn't help.

I thought I would pass along this little online survey you can take. Matt Kennedy, a graduate student in Aeronautical Science is gathering data for a nation-wide study on the level or community support for the mitigation measures used at airports to reduce wildlife strike hazards to commercial aircraft. According to Kennedy, "Getting input from different regions of the country is necessary to gauge whether there are regional differences due to varying bird populations or possible high profile incidents involving wildlife strikes on aircraft."

Responses are confidential and it only takes a few minutes. This is a cool opportunity to get involved in research.

The survey can be accessed at: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/XTVS225

If you would like a summary of the findings, you can send an email to kennedym2009@yahoo.com.

~Kirk

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Check out I and the Bird #118

Fellow natural history blogger, Duncan Fraser who hails from Australia is host to the latest edition of I and the Bird over at Ben Cruachen-Natural History and it is a real fun one. It will take days to digest all the links that contain the best bird related writing from the last month on the web. Be sure to check it out. My video of crows coming to roost in Loring Park is included in this month's edition. ~Kirk

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Why do Crows Roost in Cities?

At the Crowmageddon edition of Birds and Beers we watched thousands of crows coming in to roost at the edge of downtown Minneapolis. I wondered how long this had been going on. Did crows come into colonial cities at night? (Someone pointed out they probably would have been shot and eaten.) I did some digging and here's what I discovered. Crows coming into cities to roost in massive numbers in the winter is a relatively new phenomenon that started in the 1960s and increased each decade. There are now many massive crow roosts around the country with populations in the tens of thousands each. Crows have always roosted together at night but it is presumed that as cities expanded, they overtook the historical roost sites that were outside the city. Crows historically avoided people but some of these birds learned that there are advantages to being in the city at night and have learned new behaviors. Crows are amongst the most intelligent birds. There's also some evolutionary selective pressure going on here. The crows that overcame their fear of humans have prospered and multiplied because of the advantages of roosting in the city while those more timid crows have not been as successful and thus not passed on their timid genes.

Loring Park on the edge of downtown Minneapolis is a great example of why these roosts are successful and advantageous. First off, the park is well lit. The biggest enemy to roosting crows is the Great Horned Owl. The owls will come into a roost at night and pluck the sleeping birds out of the trees. Owls are less common in urban areas. No matter where birds roost there is safety in numbers but there is also safety in lighting. The park is lit up at night for human's safety but it makes the crows safer as well as they can see Great Horned Owls better.

It is believed the heat island effect helps the crows as well. The city is warmer at night than the surrounding rural areas and warmer nights mean birds spend fewer calories staying warm. Warmth, however, is clearly not the primary concern as the crows all seem to roost at the tips of the branches in the tallest trees. This is the coldest spot in the tree but also the best place to watch out for owls.

It is fascinating to see how animals are adapting to increasing human population pressures. For crows, there seems to be some advantages to living near humans, the same can't be said for most bird species.

~Kirk

(Crow photo credit: Paul T)

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Hoar Frost Kind of Day

Originally appeared as my column in the Country Messenger Newspaper, Feb. 2010
(Photo credit: Ævar Arnfjörð Bjarmason)

On an early winter morning I rise before dawn and get my toddler ready for the day. I swaddle him in warm clothes before dropping him off at childcare. I then make my way along winding country roads to the nature center for a day of snowshoeing and teaching winter animal signs. It is cold this morning. The stars were out as I went to bed and all night long the lack of clouds meant what little heat we'd gotten from the sun the day before was radiated straight out into the cold blackness of space. It was so cold that objects cooled down faster than the surrounding air. The varied natural and man made objects that make up the view on my commute all dropped below the dew point.

When this happens in the summer, we wake up to a covering of wet dew. When it happens in the winter, we're greeted in the morning by a covering of hoar frost. The air cannot hold onto what little moisture it has and it condenses on the cold surfaces of tan colored dried grass, the tips of green conifer needles and the edges of brown oak leaves still clinging to their branches. The conditions that cause hoar frost to form require a cold cloudless night so it shouldn't be a surprise that many frost-covered mornings are also cloud free as well. When the sun rises high through a brilliant blue sky it lights up billions of ice crystals that have delicately outlined the world in sparkling white. These are the mornings that make the cold worthwhile.

Hoar is an ancient word from Old English and one not heard much outside of the natural history world today. It originally meant old, gray and even venerable. The term hoar frost came about in the 13th century as people thought the frost looked like an old white beard on the land. Hoar frost is the most common usage of the word today but in the plant world we find Hoary Allysum, a delicate flower that makes horses mildly sick when they ingest it. The hoary in this case refers to the small frost-like covering of hairs on the stem of the plant. In the bird world, we have Hoary Redpolls, small frosty looking striped birds from above the arctic circle that sometimes visit our Minnesota bird feeders in the winter. We even have a Hoary Bat in Minnesota who's brown fur is frosted in white.

It is ironic to me that the word hoar, who's root meaning is old and venerable, is use to describe something so new and ephemeral. It is a treat to see the sun lighting up the newly frosted world as I drive to work in the morning. These frosty days may be some of the coldest of the year but they are also the most beautiful. I cherish these cold frosty mornings but they don't last long. The same sun that makes them so beautiful also soon burns off the frost and takes the winter sparkle off the land.

~Kirk

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Crowmageddon!

Sunday night was Crowmageddon at Loring Park in downtown Minneapolis. Let me explain. Every month birders in the Twin Cities get together for Birds and Beers. It is a social event to bring birders together and it is hosted by Birdchick. We usually meet at Merlin's Rest but this month decided to have it at Joe's Garage on the edge of Loring Park so we could watch the crows come in to roost for the night.

We arrived at 4:00 for drinks and food. There was an amazing turnout with more people than have ever come before. We had 52 people attend. Birds and beers took over the entire upstairs and part of the downstairs of the restaurant. As the sun started to set we saw groups of two to 10 birds heading away from the park. We were worried the bulk of the roost was going to be just west of our location. As the sun began to set though, more and more of the crows stayed in the park. Soon, they came in wave after wave in groups ranging from 30 birds to hundreds. There was no way to judge the total number of birds. They were still coming in when I left around 8:30. It think it is fair to say the number was easily in the tens of thousands. I shot some quick and dirty video to show what it was like. The shooting conditions were tough as the sun had already set once they really started to come in. The video only gives you a feel for a tiny fraction of the number of birds there. The crows are small, click the full screen button on the video to get the best effect.



~Kirk

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News Flash: Don't Eat Your Snowshoes.

A first grader learned something he will never forget during our weather class today. Oh I'm sure he learned about weather patterns, seasons being caused by axial tilt and even the water cycle but something tells me that's not the lesson he'll remember.

Part of the class involved going out to snowshoe to enjoy our fine Minnesota weather. Today that would be a light snow and a temperature of 10° F . At the end of the hike, the kids took of their metal snowshoes which they had tromped through the cold snow for 30 minutes. The salient lesson here has to do with thermal conductance of metals. The rims of the snowshoes were a good 23° below freezing. The first graders mouth was both much warmer and wetter. Do you see where I'm going here?He decided for some crazy reason only known to a first grade brain to put the metal rim of the snowshoe in his mouth. Of course, the metal very quickly, i.e. almost instantly, conducted away all of the heat in his saliva and froze his mouth to the metal rim of the snowshoe. This is actually pretty easily remedied with some warm water but in a panic the boy forcefully yanked the snowshoe out of his mouth and the bleeding ensued.

So, though you might not think such things need to be said out loud, we should probably now tell the first graders not to lick their snowshoes.

~Kirk

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