Flooding in St. Paul this Spring?

The chart above is from the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service with the National Weather Service. This chart is the most recent predictions for spring river levels in downtown St. Paul. This prediction was released on the 16th. The vertical values are the height of the river in feet. The horizontal values are the percentage chance of that height being attained.

The black line is the current predictions for river height based on observed conditions such as current river flow and snow pack. the blue data are the observed averages from the historical data. The first thing you notice is that no matter where you look on the chart, the observed values are higher than average.

We can see that historically there is about a 25% chance of the river reaching the yellow line which indicates a flood level of 14 feet. Based on observed conditions, there is currently a 90% chance of the Mississippi river reaching flood level at downtown St. Paul. 14 feet is considered "minor flooding" and according to the NWS, at 14 feet, "Portions of the Lilydale residential area begin to experience flooding."

Harriet Island becomes submerged under water at 17.5 feet. This is considered major flooding. It looks like there is about a 65% chance of that happening based on current conditions.

Warner road becomes impassable due to high water and the downtown airport closes at around 18 to 18.5 feet. Historically there is about an 8% chance of this happening in a given year. Current predictions for this spring are around 55%.

Of course, what will actually happen will depend a lot of what this next month brings in terms of precipitation. More snow will increase the chance of flooding as will March rains. A fast warm-up quickly melting snow and sending it to the river would increase flooding as well. It should be an interesting spring.

~Kirk

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Thank you Horned Larks

This morning on the way in to work I spotted some birds on the side of the road. The road goes through a farm field and each year I find this same little stretch is reliable for American Kestrels in the summer and if I am lucky, Horned Larks in the winter. I love this little stretch of road. I saw a Northern Shrike there earlier this year and a Bobolink last summer.

I've been slowing down through this stretch each day patiently waiting for the Horned Larks. This morning, I saw some birds on the side fo the road. They were too large to be the tree sparrows and juncos I'd seen earlier in the season. I quickly pulled over and fumbled to get my binoculars out of my bag while I hoped no cars would come and scare off the birds. Predictably, the zipper on my bag jammed. I finally pulled out the binoculars and was delighted with a splendid view of Horned Larks. There were six of them in total.

It was a great feeling to see a new bird for the year. I'd been in a dry spell lately as I hadn't seen a new bird for the year since January 15th. That's more than a month without adding a bird to my list. Granted, I could have added some if I was trying harder or say, retired and not raising a toddler.

Here's the list thus far.

January 1
I started the year off on January 1st with my best first day of the year ever as we took a fmily trip down to La Crosse on the first of the year to visit family. A quick but unbelievably cold stop at Point Douglas helped. The Harlequin Duck was a lifer for me. Not bad way to start off the year.
1. House Sparrow (at my house)
2. Rock Pigeon (at my house)
3. Red-tailed Hawk (driving past the MSP airport)
4. Trumpeter Swan (point douglas)
5. Canada Goose (point douglas)
6. Mallard Duck (point douglas)
7. Harlequin Duck (point douglas)
8. American Coot (point douglas)
9. Ring-billed Gull (point douglas)
10. Ring-necked Duck (point douglas)
11. American Crow (point douglas)
12. Bald Eagle (near Wabasha)

January 2
On the Second day of the year I woke up to take in some of the birds at my in-laws house. To my toddler's disappointment, there was no chickadee at the feeders but the Tufted Titmouse did finally show up.
13. Slate-colored Dark-eyed Junco (LaCrosse, WI)
14. White-breasted Nuthatch (LaCrosse, WI)
15. Red-bellied Woodpecker (LaCrosse, WI)
16. Tufted Titmouse (LaCrosse, WI)
17. European Starling (LaCrosse, WI)

January 4
Back at work, I quickly picked up the usual suspects at the feeders.
18. Blue Jay (Warner Nature Center)
19. Hairy Woodpecker (Warner Nature Center)
20. Downy Woodpecker (Warner Nature Center)
21. Black-capped Chickadee (Warner Nature Center)
22. American Goldfinch (Warner Nature Center)
23. Sharp-shinned hawk (Warner Nature Center)
24. Pileated Woodpecker(Warner Nature Center)

January 6
One more day, one more bird.
25. American Robin (near Warner Nature Center)

January 7
An unexpected surprise, while sitting in a meeting at the Science Museum, a Peregrine Falcon repeatedly flew past the windows of the conference room.
26. Peregrine Falcon (Science Museum of MN, St. Paul)

January 11
On a school outreach trip I picked up two more birds. Marine on St. Croix is a good place for birding in the winter with open water from the Mill Stream and numerous springs.
27. Northern Cardinal (Marine on St. Croix)
28. American Tree Sparrow (Marine on St. Croix)

January 12
On the morning drive in to work I saw two more birds and then the Turkeys were finally at the feeders. The Northern Shrike was a real winter treat.
29. Ring-necked Pheasant (near Warner Nature Center)
30. Northern Shrike (near Warner Nature Center)
31. Wild Turkey (Warner Nature Center)

January 15
The house finches finally appeared at my fly through feeder at home.
32. House Finch (at my house)

February 23
After over a month of new birds...
33. Horned Lark (near Warner Nature Center)

The list has some surprises thus far. It was nice to get the Horned Lark, Sharp-shinned Hawk and Harlequin Duck. There are some really obvious omissions though. I have yet to see a Cedar Waxwing, Brown Creeper, Mourning Dove, Pine Siskin, Common Redpoll, or a Barred Owl. I think I am the only staff person at work who has not spotted a Barred Owl in the woods this year. Maybe this is my week.

~Kirk

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St. Paul to Ash Borer: Let the Battle Begin

(photo credit: US Forest Service)

It seems like a lot of the efforts thus far in the new battle against the invasive emerald ash borer have been reactive on the part of St. Paul, Minnesota. This is completely understandable with a new invasion like this. At the end of January though, the city opened a new front in the battle and it may not be where you would expect. The heart of the Emerald Ash Borer infestation has been centered on the very westernmost part of St. Paul near the Minnesota St. Fair grounds and the University of Minnesota St. Paul campus. The announcement at the end of last month was that the city would begin cutting down trees on the far East side of the city. They will remove XXX trees in wards 5, 6 and 7. The city has almost 30,000 ash trees on boulevards alone and it is estimated that ash trees make up 30% of the tree canopy in the city. According to the city's management plan, there are around 120,000 ash trees on public lands in the city. Make no mistake. The Emerald Ash Borer being found in St. Paul is a very bad thing. The city is now trying to be proactive in containing the threat.

The current plan is to remove the oldest and unhealthiest trees in the city that would be most likely to succumb to the eventual spread of the pest. These trees will die anyhow in the next few years as the ash borer spreads so by taking them out now the city not only gets a head start on their work but they hopefully will slow the spread of the borer by taking away trees that would be of use to the pest.

The reason for cutting down old trees proactively on the opposite side of the city from where the current infestation is located is that cutting down ash trees in the infected area would simply cause the bugs to spread further faster in search of suitable trees.

Trees have already been removed in the following areas:
Wilson Avenue between White Bear Avenue and Kennard Street
Reaney Avenue between Flandrau and Germain Streets
Hoyt Avenue between White Bear Avenue and Flandrau Street
Iowa Avenue between Kennard and Hazelwood Steets
Idaho Avenue between Flandrau and Germain Streets

Trees will shortly be removed on the following streets:
Walsh Street between Maryland and Magnolia Avenues
Magnolia Avenue between Payne Avenue and Walsh Street
Lawson Avenue between Weide and Arcade Streets
3rd Street between Germain and Flandrau Streets
Atlantic Street between Gotzian and 4th Streets
3rd Street between Earl and Atlantic Streets

The city is only removing boulevard trees and not trees on private property. Time will tell how the city's strategy pans out. You can download and read the city's entire management plan online. Eagan, Blaine, Minneapolis, St. Louis Park, New Hope, Minnetonka , and Cottage Grove have all also received money to help fight the spread of the beetle.

~Kirk

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Golden Eagle Flying with Goat

The hot buzz on the Internet right now is a series of photos taken by Eric Walters at the Nachusa Grasslands in Illinois.

The photos show a Golden Eagle attacking a white-tailed deer. They are quite impressive and it seems crazy that an eagle would try to take down a deer. Does the deer need to worry? Maybe.

The first thing that came to mind though when I saw the photos was this video from a few years back. A Golden Eagle picks a mountain goat off the side of a mountain and eats it. By all means watch the entire thing but the most amazing part starts at about 4:55. The eagle actually flies while carrying a goat. Amazing. The video is from Europe.



~Kirk

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Lichens can live in space!

(photo credit: Tigerente)

That's the news from the ESA (European Space Agency). The lichen species Xanthoria elegans successfully survived for 18 months on the exterior of the International Space Station in an experiment where it was exposed to the vacuum of space as well as wild temperature fluctuations and bombardment by cosmic rays and high levels of UV radiation from the sun. It is pretty incredible that something could survive all that. Space is one of the most hostile environments to life you can imagine. Humans would die extremely quickly in exposed space.

Let's be clear though, the lichen wasn't really growing, it was just surviving. Lichens have the ability to wait it out of conditions aren't just perfect for growth. Show me lichens growing in space and then I'll be completely blown away. Maybe I'm reading the reports wrong but it seems like the lichens just shut down and waited for conditions to improve.

Xanthoria elegans is a foliose lichen that grown on rocks. It is clearly very adaptable as even here on earth it is found in habitats as diverse as grasslands, sea shores and boreal forests.

I'd be very interested to see an experiment where lichens are sent to mars to see if they will grow in the thin martian atmosphere.

~Kirk

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Happy Darwin Day!

Today would have been Charles Darwin's 201st birthday. He was one of the greatest naturalists ever though he wasn't perfect. He had his share of troubles and even his understanding of evolution was limited by the technology and evidence available to him at the time. For example, he didn't understand how inheritance worked. Though Gregor Mendel had already figured out inheritance at the time, Mendelian Inheritance wasn't widely known until much later when scientists re-discovered his work around 1900. Still, it is great to pause and honor such a scientist and naturalist that helped us all understand our world a little better. I know personally his work has enriched my life.

This is a great opportunity to recommend a book. If you are interested in the life of Darwin I would recommend, The Reluctant Mr. Darwin: An Intimate Portrait of Charles Darwin and the Making of His Theory of Evolution. by David Quammen.

~Kirk

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Tit Watchers Needed.

Time to get off your wintered butt and start looking for tits in your backyard. Tits, those birds that are part of the Paridae family, mostly consist of Black-capped Chickadees and maybe Tufted Titmice if you're birding in the Twin Cities. This weekend (February 12-15) is the Great Backyard Bird Count and to be fair, they are looking for more than just tits. This is the wonderfully lucky 13th annual GBBC so you are practically mandated to participate. Only on the Christmas Bird Count will you find yourself so excited by chickadees, crows, pigeons and yes, even house sparrows.

Participants, also known by the sexy title, "Citizen Scientists", from around the country will fill out checklists of what they see allowing for a fantastic one weekend snapshot of the birds in North America. The project is organized by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology , the National Audubon Society, and Bird Studies Canada.

All you have to do is bird on this weekend and submit you observations on www.birdcount.org. It is called the Great Backyard Bird Count but you can bird elsewhere as well.

Last year scientists were able to discover interesting trends in the pine siskin population because of this event. They are counting on you!

Another cool thing is that on the www.birdcount.org website, you can check out real-time maps showing what others are reporting during the count. how cool is that? There is also a photo contest and you can upload photos of birds you see during the count. The chickadee at the top of this post was from one of last year's winners, Bill Schiess from Indiana. Just for participating you are entered in a drawing for prizes including bird feeders, binoculars, books, CDs, and many other great birding products.

Do you really need an excuse to go look at birds? Well now you have one! Even if you only enter data on a couple of birds you see in your yard that is still valuable data. Please take part!

(photo credit: Bill Schiess, taken during the 2009 Great Backyard Bird Count)

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